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Author Archives: karlstrobl

Deflation the symptom, Demographics & Debt the disease; Default the cure?

January 19, 2015by karlstrobl 1 Comment

You should fear deflation, or so the story goes, as it puts a brake on the economy: In a deflationary environment, people expect the same amount of money to be worth […]

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Current affairs, Demographics, Finance

Where’s the credit shortage coming from?

December 21, 2014by karlstrobl Leave a comment

Have you ever wondered why it’s become so difficult to open, or even just simply operate, a bank account these days? Why your bank treats you in a way that […]

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Current affairs, Finance

My Prediction for the Scottish Independence Vote

September 18, 2014by karlstrobl 3 Comments

Another little game theory for you: People behave differently in polls than in actual elections. Polls have only signalling value, while votes have a definite outcome. When you vote you have […]

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Current affairs

The Trouble with Big Data

September 14, 2014by karlstrobl 1 Comment

Part 1: Why Big Data can spell Big Trouble   Confusing significant-looking results with meaningful results in statistics, and how this gets worse in the age of Big Data is […]

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Current affairs, Finance

Cosmic Events

May 28, 2014by karlstrobl 2 Comments

[note: this is the original post. There is an important update at the bottom; sadly the event was not ‘real’, but I leave the text here for some time for […]

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Biosphere, Current affairs
image: EuroCrisisExplained.co.uk (flickr)

The Destabilizing Risks of Globally Coordinated Regulation

March 24, 2014by karlstrobl 3 Comments

Punchy title, eh? But when there’s something nobody talks about, but everyone agrees when I mention it, it scares me. So here it is. In the aftermath of the financial […]

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Current affairs, Finance

Sustainable Retail Distribution on the Internet

March 15, 2014by karlstrobl 1 Comment

When  internet-shopping, you can’t look your retailer in the eye. You lose a deeply intuitive (and largely effective) indicator of whether you and your seller are a good match. So […]

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Current affairs

Ed Snowden will have done the NSA a favour

December 29, 2013by karlstrobl 2 Comments

The title of this post is not a political statement, but will simply be a statistical truth, if the not-so-recent revelations lead to a step away from “just-in-case” wholesale data collection […]

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Current affairs

Peak CPU and the next computing revolution

December 26, 2013by karlstrobl 1 Comment

Forget Big Data. Here is the Next Big Thing in computing. First, the central fact: We are hitting the physical limits of processor speed. This ought to reset your expectations of future […]

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Energy, Resources
Fighting Entropy takes Energy (photo: Printemps, flickr)

Entropy and the Meaning of “Renewable”

November 18, 2013by karlstrobl 1 Comment

Fighting Entropy takes Energy (photo: Printemps, flickr) Can we give hard currency to the terms ‘renewable’ and ‘sustainable’? An excellent book by Guy Deutscher, a physicist from Tel Aviv University, […]

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Biosphere, Energy, Resources

Game Theory and the Debt Ceiling

October 5, 2013by karlstrobl 4 Comments

The idea of applying game theory to the debt ceiling debate isn’t exactly new. In fact, I did exactly that, back in March. The FT just ran an article on […]

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Current affairs

EU legal opinion on the Financial Transaction Tax

September 11, 2013by karlstrobl Leave a comment

My opinions on the EU-11 Financial Transactions tax have been reported extensively in this blog, in May, April,  and February this year. The legal advisor to EU finance ministers — the “Council legal service” […]

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Finance
photo: flickr.com (CarbonNYC)

A New Road-Map for Deposit Insurance

July 9, 2013by karlstrobl 1 Comment

Chatting with one of Europe’s former central bankers recently, we discussed how Cyprus could have been handled differently, and what it all means for European banking integration and deposit insurance. […]

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Finance

Peak Water and Food Security

June 30, 2013by karlstrobl Leave a comment

If nations care about food security, their first concern should be sustainability of freshwater supplies. Here is the logic: The world’s fresh water supply is largely inaccessible for water production: […]

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Biosphere, Resources

Method in the Madness of Greece’s Government?

June 17, 2013by karlstrobl 2 Comments

Moody’s is putting Greece on credit watch negative because of the threat to government stability following the unilateral shock decision to dissolve the government broadcaster ERT in its current form […]

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Current affairs

Democracy is Coming Home to Die

June 12, 2013by karlstrobl Leave a comment

Greece, at alarming speed, is digging itself into an ever deeper political hole. The government, or more precisely the Nea Demokratia faction of it, shut down Greece’s national broadcaster on six […]

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Current affairs

Global Warming is no Stag Hunt

May 29, 2013by karlstrobl 1 Comment

Is finding a solution to Global Warming really like solving a Prisoner’s Dilemma? Most real-world problems of cooperation and coordination, even if they are said to be one, are really […]

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Biosphere, Resources
(flickr: Robin Hood Tax)

The Financial Transaction Tax and the Long Grass

May 15, 2013by karlstrobl 1 Comment

In an old post, I speculated that the EU transaction tax (FTT) will quietly go away. I feel endorsed now that Mervin King hints that Europe would use delaying tactics to kick […]

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Finance

The Future of Offshore Outsourcing: The Case of India

May 1, 2013by karlstrobl 4 Comments

My blog has been silent for a while, as I got ready to speak in Bangalore, India, where my friends at AMBA put on a great conference on offshore outsourcing […]

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Current affairs, Demographics, Finance

Ready for Ageing? The House of Lords (Thinks It) Is…

April 5, 2013by karlstrobl 3 Comments

We should envy the UK for having the House of Lords! For they have given us a useful reminder of the consequences of an ageing society. But, like most such […]

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Current affairs, Demographics, Finance

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New Stuff

  • Epidemics: The R Factor and Public Policy Choices September 27, 2020
  • COVID: Stop Arguing About the Physics; The Maths Has It September 25, 2020
  • Standard Operating Procedures for Dictators (*), First Edition September 29, 2019
  • Doubt Kills More Dreams Than Failure; Thank God For That! February 6, 2018

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karlstrobl

karlstrobl

co-founder and co-owner of a humanitarian demining organisation, lecturer in finance and applied maths. former investment manager, trader; and once a particle physicist; cares about retirement systems, demographics, govt debt, sustainability, life linkedin.com/in/karlstrobl

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