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Category Archives: Current affairs

COVID: Stop Arguing About the Physics; The Maths Has It

September 25, 2020by karlstrobl Leave a comment

COVID related social restrictions aren’t there to protect you today. They won’t move the dial much on that point. They are there to protect us all in the medium term. This article explains the mathematics of why we need these measures even if the personal COVID risks are already at a risk level that’s “acceptable” without them.

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Current affairs

Design Flaws of the Euro, Part 1: The ECB

July 15, 2015by karlstrobl 2 Comments

In many posts I refer much too briefly to the ‘misconstructed’ currency union. I think I need to dedicate a series now to explain in more detail what I mean […]

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Current affairs

The Media Turn Against Schaeuble, but Too Late

July 13, 2015by karlstrobl 2 Comments

This is significant. The hashtag #Thisisacoup is trending massively on Twitter, leading Hugo Dixon, a keen observer of the Greek crisis, to suggest that the Eurozone in general is losing the […]

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Current affairs

The Real Reason Varoufakis had to Go

July 12, 2015by karlstrobl 3 Comments

Varoufakis was too clever to understand politics. It is three years ago that I had an exchange with him on his blog about needing credible threats if one wanted to play […]

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Current affairs

How Will Merkel Square Her Circle?

July 8, 2015by karlstrobl 4 Comments

Here is a quote from Ryszard Legutko, MEP from the conservative group ECR: So if this piece de theatre continues I think we will be more and more confused about […]

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Current affairs

Time to get Angry with Tsipras

July 7, 2015by karlstrobl 2 Comments

I am in utter disbelief: There was an emergency Eurogroup finance ministers meeting, and there will be a Eurogroup leaders meeting in an hour, and Greece turned up without a […]

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Current affairs

A simple message to Europe: From Greece, With Love

July 5, 2015by karlstrobl 4 Comments

Here is what Tsipras should say to Europe. No fancy victory lap rhetoric, just the facts: Greek voters have made their view clear. There is not even a single electoral […]

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Current affairs

The IMF Says Vote No

July 4, 2015by karlstrobl 1 Comment

The IMF has left the realms of delusion over Greek debt sustainability. It now has admitted that it failed to realise the damage austerity would do. In other words the deal which […]

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Current affairs

Greece: Why is it so Important? (Part 2)

June 29, 2015by karlstrobl Leave a comment

With Greece defaulting tomorrow, my post two weeks ago “Greece: Why is it so important?” seems more eerily prescient than I feared back then. I said the Greek government isn’t […]

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Current affairs

Why Greeks should vote No

June 28, 2015by karlstrobl 3 Comments

The game of chicken is over. There is no stepping back from the promise of a referendum, and if there is a future ‘deal’, it won’t be with the current […]

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Current affairs

The Effects of Austerity: Ireland vs Greece

June 20, 2015by karlstrobl 2 Comments

Before the next crunch-time comes for Grexit negotiations on Monday, let’s study why austerity hasn’t worked in Greece, and why Ireland, by contrast, didn’t seem to have suffered adverse consequences. The openness […]

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Current affairs, Finance

Greece: Why is it so important?

June 17, 2015by karlstrobl 2 Comments

It’s often been said in the last days that Greece represents less than 2% of the Eurozone’s GDP, so we shouldn’t spend so much energy on the whole Greek situation, […]

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Current affairs, Finance

For Whom Tolls the Bell?

June 9, 2015by karlstrobl 4 Comments

In an inversion of the closing of Tsipras’ op-ed in Le Monde, we might ask: Does the bell really toll for Europe, or just for Greece? The game of the […]

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Current affairs, Finance

Varoufakis and Game Theory

May 28, 2015by karlstrobl 8 Comments

Much has been made of the Greek Finance Minister’s credentials in game theory. Because I commute to Greece a lot, and because I’ve had some exchanges with Yanis Varoufakis on […]

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Current affairs, Finance

Deflation the symptom, Demographics & Debt the disease; Default the cure?

January 19, 2015by karlstrobl 1 Comment

You should fear deflation, or so the story goes, as it puts a brake on the economy: In a deflationary environment, people expect the same amount of money to be worth […]

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Current affairs, Demographics, Finance

Where’s the credit shortage coming from?

December 21, 2014by karlstrobl Leave a comment

Have you ever wondered why it’s become so difficult to open, or even just simply operate, a bank account these days? Why your bank treats you in a way that […]

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Current affairs, Finance

My Prediction for the Scottish Independence Vote

September 18, 2014by karlstrobl 3 Comments

Another little game theory for you: People behave differently in polls than in actual elections. Polls have only signalling value, while votes have a definite outcome. When you vote you have […]

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Current affairs

The Trouble with Big Data

September 14, 2014by karlstrobl 1 Comment

Part 1: Why Big Data can spell Big Trouble   Confusing significant-looking results with meaningful results in statistics, and how this gets worse in the age of Big Data is […]

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Current affairs, Finance

Cosmic Events

May 28, 2014by karlstrobl 2 Comments

[note: this is the original post. There is an important update at the bottom; sadly the event was not ‘real’, but I leave the text here for some time for […]

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Biosphere, Current affairs
image: EuroCrisisExplained.co.uk (flickr)

The Destabilizing Risks of Globally Coordinated Regulation

March 24, 2014by karlstrobl 3 Comments

Punchy title, eh? But when there’s something nobody talks about, but everyone agrees when I mention it, it scares me. So here it is. In the aftermath of the financial […]

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Current affairs, Finance

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New Stuff

  • Epidemics: The R Factor and Public Policy Choices September 27, 2020
  • COVID: Stop Arguing About the Physics; The Maths Has It September 25, 2020
  • Standard Operating Procedures for Dictators (*), First Edition September 29, 2019
  • Doubt Kills More Dreams Than Failure; Thank God For That! February 6, 2018

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karlstrobl

karlstrobl

co-founder and co-owner of a humanitarian demining organisation, lecturer in finance and applied maths. former investment manager, trader; and once a particle physicist; cares about retirement systems, demographics, govt debt, sustainability, life linkedin.com/in/karlstrobl

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